DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/24 10:47
Corn, Soybeans Headed Lower Midday Thursday
Corn is 8 to 10 cents lower, soybeans are 19 to 21 cents lower and wheat is
flat to 15 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 250 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.06 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with
crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs the downside leader.
Precious metals are weaker with gold off $4.
Corn trade is 8 to 10 cents lower with trade seeing broad selling pickup
across ag commodities Thursday morning with a favorable forecast and little
other fresh news, but trade has firmed off the early lows. Ethanol margins will
remain supported by the pullback in corn but will need to see better blender
margins to get trade more excited about production as stocks rebuild. Brazil
weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest
while U.S. weather is watched for heat in the extended forecast while the
Northwest part of the Corn Belt continues to miss the rains that the rest of
the belt has seen in recent days. Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near
term with more attention going to new crop as well as feed wheat becoming
available. Weekly export sales were in line with expectations at 216,300 metric
tons of old crop and 310,800 metric tons of new crop. On the July contract,
trade is back below the 20-day at $6.67 failing to hold above on tests, with
the lower Bollinger Band at $6.32 as support.
Soybeans are 19 to 21 cents lower at midday with product values weighing on
action early Thursday. Meal is seeing fresh lows while oil fades as well with a
better short-term forecast. Announcements of another 132,000 metric tons sold
to China for new crop and 260,000 metric tons of new crop to unknown failed to
move the needle. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 lower and oil is 0.55 cent to 0.75 cent
lower. The weather pattern should allow for better short-term development with
rains needed to boost double-crop areas during planting as wheat comes off.
South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S.
basis returning to flat short term with bids rolling to the back months in many
locations. Weekly export sales were soft at 141,700 metric tons of old crop,
47,300 of new, with meal improving at 387,600 metric tons of old and 22,000 of
new, along with 2,400 of oil. On the July soybean chart, support is the lower
Bollinger Band at $13.29 with $14.00 again becoming resistance.
Wheat trade is flat to 15 cents lower with spring wheat remaining the leader
and Chicago seeing the most pressure with spillover pressure from row crops
again Thursday with weather concerns lifting spring wheat. The dollar is flat,
pulling back slightly from the higher end of the range but not able to slide
through support. Harvest should continue to pick up steam with combines
starting to roll north of I-70 and some possible relief for some spring wheat
areas over the next week. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be
watched as well with little fresh news on the front, with short-term stress in
the Black Sea area possible. KC has narrowed back to a 43-cent discount,
sharply off the recent highs, with Minneapolis at a 156-cent premium getting
back to the highs. Weekly export sales were rangebound at 374,100 metric tons.
KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.20 with support at the
lower Bollinger Band at $5.88.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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